I. Assessment of 1998 Marine Disasters

Storm surge, billow, sea ice and red tide were the major marine disasters occurring in the coastal and offshore waters of China in 1998, which resulted in the directly economic loss of over 2 billion Yuan RMB. 1998 is the year with the most disastrous red tides in recent years.

1. Storm Surge, Billow and Sea Ice

Seven typhoon storm surge processes occurred at Chinese coast areas in 1998, three of which were disastrous. The cold wave gale and the typhoon caused the disastrous sea waves of 284 days. Together with the impact of storm surge and billow, they resulted in the directly economic loss of 1 billion Yuan RMB or so. The storm surge and billow caused by the No.9806 typhoon resulted in the heaviest loss. The high tidal levels surpassed their respective local warning revels at 4 tidal stations in the coast of Shanghai City and Zhejiang Province. Very high sea of 7-8 meters occurred at the East China Sea. 6 cities and towns were hit by seawater in Zhejiang Province. The stricken farms were 1.49 million mu. 15 small reservoirs and 158km river and sea embankments were destroyed. One person died of the disaster and 125 persons were hurt. The stricken population reached over 0.9 million. The directly economic loss was 780 million Yuan RMB.

The ice condition was slighter from November 1997 to March 1998 than usual years in the Bohai Sea and the northern Yellow Sea. But in January 1998, the most severe ice condition in recent 50 years occurred at Yalujiang River Month. It caused 11 ships and boats sunk. 17 sites of the dock were heavily destroyed.

2. The El Nino Event and The La Nina Event

The largest El Nino event in this century reached its climax in December 1997, began to decline in the spring of 1998 and ended in May 1998. The La Nina event occurred in October 1998. The 1998 catastrophic flood in the Changjiang River valley was related with the El Nino event and La Nina event

3. Red Tide

Due to over discharging land-sourced pollutants into seas, the offshore water pollution was very severe, which resulted in the frequent occurrence of marine pollution and deterioration events. The marine ecological environment was destroyed. The heavy harm and loss were caused. 22 red tides were found in Chinese sea areas in 1998, among which were 10 in the South China Sea, 5 in the East China Sea and 7 in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. The characteristics of 1998 red tides were wide scope and long duration. They appeared not only in the offshore waters, but also outer waters. And new biological species causing red tides were discovered. Large area red tide appeared in the Zhujiang River mouth of Guangdong Province and the Hongkong sea areas in March and April 1998. It lasted for over 30 days. It resulted in the death of a batch of aquaculture fish and shellfish. The directly economic loss was more than 100 million Yuan RMB. The largest red tide occurred in the Bohai Sea in September and October 1998. It involved the Liaodong Bay, the Bohai Bay and the Laizhou Bay and lasted for more than 40 days. The area it covered reached 5,000 km2. It caused the catastrophic loss.

II. Prediction of 1999 Marine Disasters

1. Disastrous Storm Surge

More storm surges will occur in 1999 than in 1998. They will cause more severe disasters than in 1998. 4 or 5 disastrous storm surges will occur from June to October in 1999, which will be more frequent than usual years. They will mainly affect the coastal areas of the Guangdong; Guangxi and Hainan provinces and slightly affect the coastal areas of the Fujian and Zhejiang provinces and Shanghai Municipality. Among the 4 or 5 disastrous storm surges, one will affect the coastal areas north to the Changjiang River month in August and September. One or two disastrous extra-tropical storm surges will occur along the coasts of the Bohai Bay and the Laizhou Bay in September and October 1999.

2. Disastrous Sea Waves

The days of disastrous billow of over 4 meters will be more in Chinese sea areas in 1999 than in 1998. They are about 350 days. The billow of about 280 days will be caused by the cold air and the cyclone. The billow of about 70 days will be caused by typhoon. The disastrous billow will mainly occur in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the East China Sea.

3. Sea Ice

The trend of ice condition in the Bohai Sea and in the north of the Yellow Sea in the winter of 1999~2000 will be: more severe in the Laodong Bay and in the north of the Yellow Sea than usual Years, less severe in the Laizhou Bay of the southern Bohai Sea than usual years.

4. The El Nino Event and the La Nina Event

At present, the La Nina event has passed its strongest period. It will become weaker and weaker slowly. It is predicted that it will end in the late half of 1999. The El Nino event will not occur in 1999.

5. Red Tides

The red tides will occur in 1999 almost as frequently as in 1998. The frequently occurring areas will focus on the sea areas and aquaculture areas of serious pollution and poor exchange of water body in the LaiZhou Bay, the western Bohai Bay, the Changjiang River month, the Zhujiang River month and the offshore waters to the south of Fujian Province.